PMP Today

Influential columnist on the computing industry John C. Dvorak revealed today a major design flaw in the iPhone software. It’s the virtual keyboard. The iPhone is entirely controlled by its touch user interface except for one Return button below the screen. According to Dvorak people are going to line up back to iPhone and AT$T stores to return the iPhone the same way they lined up to get one. People who have used the iPhone for tests have informed Dvorak, who also “spilled the beans” regarding the real reason for iPhone’s delay, that the virtual keyboard “is a disaster, and people are going to return the phone in droves. I’m guessing 20% will go back.”

Dvorak couldn’t believe it himself: “It’s not the scenario I’m predicting,” I said. “Besides, Jobs said the keyboard is great.”

“No, he didn’t,” the informant insisted. “He said that if you ‘trust the keyboard you can really fly.’ Nobody will get that far. It’s frustrating to use.”

Dvorak, however, still believes in Apple and concluded his commentary on Market Watch still upbeat:

“As for the iPhone keyboard leading to disappointment and returns, I’m not convinced. I’m sticking with my scenario where the phone is hugely successful for a couple of quarters until the fashion goes stale. By then, the functionality will be duplicated by others and Apple will be treading water. In the meantime, there will be the inevitable production flaws that hopefully will not be catastrophic. If a production catastrophe does occur, call your broker.”

Despite these pre-release iPhone anxieties, Business Week reports that 3 million iPhones will be available for purchase this year. They mention that few people doubt the iPhone will sell 10 million phones in 2008. A true iPhone competitor may not be in the market until 2009, so impressed will people be on the user technology that iPhone has to offer. Their Conclusion: it will be a $10 billion-a-year business.

[via engadget, businessweek]