Perhaps Motorola Droid won’t be enough for Verizon. Wall Street analyst Brian Marshall is putting his money on a Verizon iPhone next year when Apple and AT&T may end their exclusivity deal.

“AT&T’s ’sweetheart’ carrier subsidy (~$450) for the iPhone would not be attainable at Verizon,” said Marshall in the note. “[But] diverse carrier support is a key element in driving global penetration of the iPhone. We believe the chances are high the iPhone will find its way onto the Verizon network in the second half of 2010.”

When Apple does stop selling the iPhone for AT&T’s GSM network, Marshall predicts Apple will lose significant chunk of the subsidy money, from the $450 per home that AT&T is giving them to only $300 when the iPhone lands on Verizon. The $300 per phone will put the Verizon iPhone on the same plane as other smartphones in network deals. In the long run, Marshall believes Apple will gain by about $7 billion, selling about 14 million iPhone by 2011. It will be AT&T’s big loss to the tune of half a million subscribers every quarter.

“Everyone is dissatisfied with AT&T on the iPhone, not only on voice, but data as well, especially in congested cities like New York and San Francisco,” said Marshall, echoing complaints that go back more than two years to the launch of the original iPhone in the summer of 2007. “If Verizon starts selling the iPhone, AT&T is going to have an issue on their hands.”

[via computerworld]